The College Football thread

“My dog is bigger than your dog.


Why don't you both drop your drawers, measure your dicks, and find out who's the biggest dick.
last edited: 12/07/05 6:52:30 AM”

“I just want to know what chili is still doing on this thread. Isn't there a women's BB game on or something?”

“Chili is right, I was talking about the real U.T. not that imposter near Kentucky.

(The first grad school I got an acceptance call from was U. Tenn. Memphis State has some great folks in the Psychology Department).”

“Arclite: I want average computerized strength ratings (like the BCS computer rankings, or the summed BCS strength scores, or the NYT computerized scores) for the main conferences over a ten year period.”

“Doing a little digging I found this (but its only for one year):

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc04.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc03.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc02.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc01.htm

ACC ranked highest '03 and '04. Big 12 in '02. SEC in '01.
last edited: 12/07/05 12:59:20 PM”

“Now, I ain't got a dog in this fight. My local leagues aren't even division 1A (Ivy and Patriot) and I'm not crazy about the Big-12 as a whole. Still, cutting and pasting on Sagarin's threads I can go back to '98. When I have time, I'll compute 98 - 04 averages. That's 7 seasons. I'd consider that the most authoritative measure of each conference's strength in that particular time period.”

“I think computerized strength ratings are a valid statistical method, pedxing.



Sagarin, I don’t put much faith in. I used his team strength statistics for the football god contest one year. It wasn’t just off, it was WAY off.


I'll check the Congrove Computer power rankings when I get a chance.”

“The NCAA does not conduct a national championship in Division I-A football and is not involved in the selection process. Since 1998, the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) operated jointly by the ACC, Southeastern, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and Pacific-10 Conferences has used a ranking system to determine the number one and number two teams at the end of the season. These two teams play each other in a post-season bowl game for the BCS national championship. Below is a year-by-year history of Division I-A football national champions as determined by various organizations:

That is just context. You used it to support your arguement, and posted a link to it. So by context you said it was the measure.

I am Cherokee/Irish/German mutt breed. Did Jesus tell you to drag me behind the truck?


Any way, in conclusion, the SEC is tough. My early rambling did incite you, and now you dont have much to say. But I am pretty sure that next year the SEC will again be in the running and so will we. And if We're still around, we'll start again as college football fans everywhere do.”

“Fair enough Arc. I won't bother with compiling Sagarin's years until Sunday at least - and when/if I do I will await Stats from someone you find more reliable before making any conclusions.”

““I just want to know what chili is still doing on this thread. Isn't there a women's BB game on or something?”
VioLiN
10:54:39 AM
12/07/05

I am pretending I am a Bama fan and dreaming about next year.”

“When would I dream about next year. We're looking at a 10 win season. Put another way, 2x as many wins as the UT vomiteers.”

“When would you dream about next year?


Well, last year, the year before that, uhm the one before that.... and.....well, next year.”

“Next year, I see us at 7-4 or so. Then again, that's where I saw us this year. Now in '07 it could be good. Is wishing for year after next taking it to an even higher level?”

“Yep, fortunately I haven't gone to that extreme yet.

Word on Sports Talk today in Knoxville was that Cutclife jumped into the picture to get the QB out of Arkansas and the kid in Tuscaloosa.”

“Cooool, biggun. I'm Lakota/Scottish/Dutch. Pretty close in heritage. But I'd drag ya behind the truck anyway.

I've always felt that the Big-10 and SEC were the two best conferences. But (since I have no life except to dream about afixing you to my beat up old pickup as a hood ornament) let's continue with our statistical analysis.




During my research, I’ve discovered why so many people complain about the computer rankings.

My criteria for “strongest conference” consist of two measures: 1. How balanced is the conference top-to-bottom. 2. How does the conference match up against the other conferences in head-to-head games. Can anyone suggest any more meaningful criteria?

Sagarin’s rankings in particular seem to ignore both of my criteria. Sagarin ranks the ACC as the toughest conference over the last two years. This is a conference where FSU has won 10 out of 14 years. FSU didn’t even lose a home game to an ACC opponent until it’s 14th year in the conference. This isn’t a balanced conference. And since unranked FSU won the conference championship this year, it doesn’t appear to be a particularly strong conference either.

Sagarin ranks the ACC as the strongest conference for the 2003 season. That season, the ACC went 5-2 in its bowls against Tulsa, Miami, Tennessee, West Virginia, California, Pittsburgh, and Kansas. Except for a couple of tough games, strength of schedule does not appear to be an important factor in Sagarin’s rankings.

In 2004 Sagarin again ranks the ACC as the strongest conference. That season, the two teams that played for the ACC championship, Florida St. and Virginia Tech, lost to Florida and Auburn respectively.

The ACC has a 7-5 bowl record over these two years. The SEC’s bowl record was 8-5 for those two years. Yet, after the 2004 season, Sagarin ranks the ACC the number one conference and the SEC the number six conference.

The Sagarin rankings have the ACC ranked ahead of the ahead of the SEC two out of seven years, the Big-12 three out of seven years, and ahead of the Big-10 four out of seven years. Four out of the past seven years the ACC was a stronger conference than the Big-10?




Here’s an interesting post I found on my search. It makes sense as far as saying that computer rankings are only one part of a statistical measurement of ranking because they are flawed. There’ll be no argument from me. If computer rankings were infallible, they’d all agree.


Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 04:34:55 -0600
From: Mark Hopkins
Subject: Why All Rating & Polling Methods Are Wrong

A little incisive commentary for your enjoyment. And a challenge (which I believe is an impossible challenge).

CONJECTURE:
All rating & polling methods, no matter how conceived (be they defined by human voting, checking animal entrails or star charts, coin tosses, mathematical formula, computational algorithm or otherwise) will ALL fail in one of the following three ways:

(a) The "Mount Union" effect. Exaggerated ranking of undefeated/untied
teams.

Particularly, Division III Mount Union being placed in the midsts of Division I teams in recent years; but also cases like 1956 Oklahoma being ranked #1 even though it played only 1 (nowhere-near-contender) winning team in 1956!

(b) The "Tennessee" effect. Exaggeration of schedule strength.

Particular, in 1997, the SEC was so completely dominant over everyone else, as to be virtually an entire division onto itself. A rating method which puts too much emphasis on schedule strength will place Tennessee at #1 even over Nebraska. Nebraska won its bowl game against Tennessee.

A similar thing happened in 1919 with the Western Conference.

or

(c) It will be at odds with the Won-Loss percentage, even in round-robins where the "Pct." is the nearly universal standard definition of "Best" and (more importantly) in tight-enough schedules where its use is equally universal (like conferences).

More generally and more to the point:

(c') It will be at odds with the Won-Loss Percentage (even taking into account opposition strength) in not-so-loose schdules (like Division I-A Overall).

There is simply no rating method which can avoid all 3 failures.

http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/no-way.txt




Sagarin only goes back to 1998:

Over that time, here are the average conference power numbers:

1. Big-10 78.10
2. SEC 78.02
3. Big-12 77.95
4. Pac-10 77.54
5. ACC 76.98
6. Big East 74.70


And here are the average conference power rankings:

1. Big-12 2.17
2. Pac-10 3.00
3. SEC 3.14
4. Big-10 3.43
5. ACC 3.57
6. Big East 6.00


The Big-12 and Pac-10 have been stronger conferences than the SEC and Big-10? Sagarin actually ranks the ACC as the strongest conference over the past two seasons. This probably accounts for some of the news media hype about the ACC.

Unfortunately it didn’t help Va. Tech against Auburn last year. Nor did it help Florida St. beat Florida or Georgia Tech beat Georgia this year.


Meanwhile, this is the SEC bowl record during the years 1998-2004

SEC/Big-10 9/9
SEC/Big-12 10/5
SEC/ACC 7/4




How can Sagarin justify that he ranks the ACC ahead of the Big-10 for four out of the past seven years?

I can tell you from personal experience, I have used Sagarin’s power rankings to predict the outcomes of games. His rankings have been unreliable as a predictor of head-to-head games.




The computer rankings seem to give higher ratings to conferences that have one or two teams that win a lot of games. They appear weighted against conferences that have a balanced win/loss record.

The many criticisms of computer rankings aside, they do provide some valuable statistical evidence. I am compiling statistical data from all of the computer systems I can find. More to come…”

“chili - the Tuscaloosa guy is a lifelong bama fan, but doesn't yet have a full offer from Bama. He's supposed to be really good. Bama is battling UF over the #1 rated Dual Threat QB. USC is now in the picture. He's supposed to announce next week. If we don't get him then hopefully we get the T-town guy.

I also heard the Ark kid has already committed to ND. I haven't checked the recruiting sites to verify though. I think he's the #1 pro style QB.
last edited: 12/09/05 7:23:51 AM”

“It looks like Houston Nutt just hired the high school coach of hotshot QB Mustain to be his new OC. Is he nuts?”

“how does arclite find enough hours in the day to make such long posts. Not only does have have 2 hours of typing per post but there also has to be about 4-5 hours of research per post.”

“It's sad. They are so long, that I don't bother to read them. All that work...”

“Arclite - I agree that there are limitations to computer scoring systems. I'm not sure why those 3 failures would be inevitable, but the very same things that provide objectivity for computer scoring also result in rigidity and inflexibility.”

“It's easy, DeoreDX, if you have no life.

Or if you are a sponge for all forms of learning. I am sponge-arc squarehead…

...if I only had a brain... doot-dee doodily-doot dee-doo...




Pixie, it is sad that you have the attention span of a... well...uh... a pixie.




Ped, you are going to amazed and amused. I have been having fun with numbers.




Here are the Congrove computer rankings:

Congrove does not compute conference strength but does have power rankings for the teams from 1993-2004.

One statistic can be taken from this ranking system: The number of teams with an average top 25 computer ranking from 1993 to 2004.

Big-12: 6 teams in top 25
SEC: 5 teams in top 25
ACC: 4 teams in top 25
Big-10: 4 teams in top 25
Pac-10 2 teams in top 25


This tells us how many strong teams are in each conference, as of now, according to the Congrove computer rankings. But it's still not a fair measure because Texas and Texas A&M didn't start playing in the Big-12 until 1995




Another statistic can be extrapolated. By adding up the power rankings for each team and averaging them, we can get a measure of conference strength.

Since this data goes back to the 1993 season, the Big-12, ACC, and Big East rankings should be pro-rated because of team additions and subtractions. I didn’t do that here, but I've done it with some other rankings I'll post later. WhooHoo! Betchya can't wait to see what the computer evidence shows.


Under the Congrove rankings, a lower score is better:

SEC--- 44.41
Big-10--- 44.55
Big-12--- 45.25
Pac-10--- 46.44
Big East--- 49.69
ACC--- 50.94


So when you look at the average power ratings for each team, the Congrove system ranks the SEC as the conference with the strongest teams from the 1999 to 2004 seasons.





I assure y'all. This is but a start...
last edited: 12/10/05 4:40:22 PM”

“So, Congrove pics the SEC for 99 - 04. I'll keep watching.

Do you have a link on the Congrove data?”

“REGGIE!REGGIE!REGGIE!REGGIE!”

“Lawd have moicy, ped. You're even more computer challenged than am I.

Here's the site for Congrove:

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/current_congrove_rankings.html




The Anderson & Hester computer rankings only have data from 1999-2004.


Here are the conference power rating averages from Anderson & Hester:

Pac-10 .62
Southeastern .60
Big 12 .60
Atlantic Coast .59
Big Ten .59
Big East .56

Well there’s some more conflicting computer evidence.

Does everyone agree that the Pac-10 has been the overall strongest conference since 1999?




Here are the conference ranking averages from Anderson & Hester:

Pac-10 2.5
Southeastern 2.5
Big 12 3.5
Atlantic Coast 3.5
Big Ten 3.83
Big East 5.17

It is interesting to note that these computer rankings rank the SEC ahead of the Big-10 four out of the six years from 1999-2004...


...just for anyone who's keeping score that is.”

“Malzahn is an up & coming coach. I am glad to have him.
Nutt is the one no one really wants around.”

“But at OC? That's a big step from HS.

I'll but Nutt wishes he'd jumped to Neb. The latest happenings sure makes the Butch Davis thing not likely, this year at least.”

“Hey arclite -

Thanks for the Florida recruiting opportunities. Rutgers just got a verbal commitment from this quarterback out of Miami, Chris Paul-Etienne. I understand he's quite a phenomenon. I'll have to learn to pronounce his name.

How come Florida has so much talent? (honest question)”

“He could have become our head coach & I would have been happy.

The funny thing is we may lose Mustain because we fired the guy that recruited him.”

“We may get Mustain because we hired the guy who coached both Mannings.”

“I love Reggie Bush. : )”

“If Mustain goes to either one of the UT's I will pour gas on myself & light the match.”

“Violin, as you probably know, Texas has long been a HS football state. The movie Friday Night Lights shows some of the small-town fanaticism in Texas. California has always had a good rep for talent. When I was growing up, I was always aware of what they called the Ohio-Pennsylvania corridor that has produced a lot of talent (especially some good linemen) for the big-10 over the years.

Schiano has always said he would make a big effort to recruit Florida. He has said that even if he only gets the kids that Florida, FSU, and Miami miss, he figures he’ll still get some good talent. You know that recruiting is not an exact science and the “big three” miss some good ones.

There is a lot of athletic talent in Florida. Think about how it is mostly Florida talent that stocks Florida, FSU, and Miami every year. And when you see the player stats for a lot of the big teams around the country, a lot of them have kids from Florida on their starting rosters.

The south is just different. It’s hard to explain without seeing it. Check the stats I posted for attendance records for the conferences. If you’re from up north, a lot of folks tend to have blinders for the big-10, but the SEC draws A MILLION more fans than the big-10 every year. It’s pretty fanatical.

Florida has been a hotbed of talent for years. As dayhiker has posted, Bear Bryant once described UF as a sleeping giant because of all the talent in Florida (that was before FSU and Miami reached national prominence). Maybe it’s because a lot of athletes have moved to Florida over the years. Certainly the weather here is conducive to kids being outside running all year long. Lots of pro athletes have homes in Florida and have raised their kids here. We have the son of Yannik Noah (pro tennis player from France) on our basketball team. And then there’s that fanatical southern attitude towards football.

I once went to a HS game out in the boondocks. This was a little Florida country town out in the sticks. The #1 and #2, 3A teams were playing. The whole town, and the entire surrounding area, came out to see their teams play in a concrete stadium that had big lights and probably held as many fans as Rutgers' stadium. Considering this was WAY out in the country, it was wild. It was a lot like that movie.




Have you checked the team rankings for recruiting?”

“arc - congrats on getting Tebow.”

“Our HS stadium in a town of population 10k is bigger than the U of Maine's stadium. Seriously. I've seen Maine's stadium.”

“Blount County (where I live) is the only county in Tennessee to have two schools win state championships in consecutive years. (2A and 4A). (Alcoa and Maryville).

In the fall, you can't drive through there (the two cities border each other) on a Friday night.”

“Dang you to he11, dayhiker. ;-)

You would have to go and bring up Maine.

They beat a certain SEC team last year.”

“Oh! The Shame!!!!!”

“SS - I totally forgot about that. Oops.”

“Shouldn't the proper usage be:

Darn you to Heck, Stove?




Thanks, dayhiker. Yeah, he should fit into Meyer’s offense nicely.

You get the recruits who want to stay close to home and the recruits who want to experience something new. I wasn’t recruited by anyone, but that’s how I ended up in Gainesville. I wanted to experience something different.

I think it says a lot about what Shula is doing at Bama that it came down to those two schools. USC, Michigan, and LSU weren’t really in the picture at the end. Tebow’s parents both graduated from UF and he has a brother here. But it was still a very close decision for him.

Recruiting is such an imprecise science. You know that when you see some of the talent that ends up at the smaller schools. You also see that when the NFL picks up guys from those smaller schools.

Some of my favorite sports page articles every year are the “where are they now?” stories. So many of the big-name recruits don’t pan out. And there are always a few who come out of nowhere. Did you know that, even though he had broken the Florida HS rushing record, Emmitt Smith was considered a “plodder” coming out of HS by Max Emfinger and Rivals?




It concerns me that the new NCAA guidelines for graduation include transfers due to lack of playing time and early NFL defections. That penalizes the schools that recruit a lot of top players. Josh Portis (back-up QB) figured he’d come in here as a freshman and take the job from Chris Leak. And Chris Leak (a junior with two years playing experience) was rated the number #1 overall player coming out of HS. THAT’S an ego for ya.

Portis is going to transfer. Quarterbacks Ingle Martin, Brock Berlin, and Eric Kresser all transferred due to lack of playing time. I’ve heard that the NCAA will factor that into their graduation formula, but I don’t put much faith in power-hungry bureaucrats.

They still haven’t factored in dropouts due to personal reasons such as a death in the family. That’s happened here. Nor are they appearing to make allowances for early NFL defections. Heck, if I were that good, I'd do what Emmitt Smith did: Make my millions and then come back to school and get my education without all the stress of having to play sports and not having any money. I wouldn’t care how many years it took.

Florida should fill its recruiting needs this year. We still haven’t seen if Meyer’s offense will work in the SEC. Chris Leak is coming back next year, and Meyer is going to continue to tweak the offense around his drop-back skills. Tebow has 4.5 speed, is reputed to have quick decision making skills and, depending on which stats you believe, he’s about 6-4 225. He sounds like a perfect fit for the offense Meyer is trying to establish here.




Florida is currently ranked #2 on the Rivals site. But that changes almost daily. Anywhere in the top 10 is going to be a good class. I see that Bama is up there. See how many SEC schools are?”

“The player I'm most worried about us getting is Andre Smith. He's in B'ham and is the #1 lineman and #2 overall player in the country. Some of you might have noticed we could use an OL player or two.”

“Here is the link to the newly released graduation rates for COLLEGE football.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/2005-12-19-graduation-rate-chart.htm#football

Many of these schools should be ashamed at the educational opportunities they really provide for their recruits. Seems to be some confusion, but my understanding is that transfers are not included in the data anymore so the analyis no longer penalizes schools for kids transfers.

Great showing by the SEC right. Pathetic.”

“I'm glad you posted that. I posted those numbers another year. I am embarassed by U.T.'s (Texas')performance. Notre Dame and Boston College are always way up there, one reason I always root for them. I'm impressed to see Penn doing so well also.”

“39%, that's embarrrasing for UA football.

Every player that's completed their SR year at UA in men's b-ball has graduated since Mark Gottfried has been the coach. Last year a stat was quoted in USA Today saying the % was about 35% which is total bunk.”

“Congrats to those high on the list but really who cares! To say that these percentages represent any measurement of the educational opportunities available at the university doesn't follow any clear logic. Just saying you received a degree means what exactly? While transfers may not be included in those percentages, athletes who leave for the NFL before graduation and others kicked off the team are. The overwhelming majority of those situations are in the best interest of the student athlete; not the university's athletic dept. Graduation rates and off the field problems that result a dismissal typically run in cycles for most schools; high one year and low the next several. You’re telling me a guy should stay and get a piece of paper instead of making more cash in one year than most make in a life time?
last edited: 12/20/05 9:52:28 AM”

“I suspect that while everyone wants to point to NFL jobs and discipline issues that the truth is that the major factor in graduation rates is neither. Rather, athletes who have used up their 4 years of athletic eligibility but have not earned nearly enough creidts to graduate (taking light loads and failing classes) simply walk away. Schools who care if their athletes graduate would take steps to intervene or even better the attitude around campus would be one in which athletes understand that they are EXPECTED to graduate.”

“But since when is this the responsibility of the school? How does this represent that the school is successfully educating? As a former student athlete most of my team majored in useless areas of studies which sent them back to school for another couple of years after graduation. Is it too much to ask a young adult to be responsible? By NCAA rules a student is forced to successfully complete a certain amount of credits each semester towards his declared major to remain eligible for participation as a student athlete. Therefore, light loads and failing classes are not typical issues for someone who makes it 4 years. Changes of major, transferring after athletic eligibility is up, and early leave for pro sports are. Also, most transfers at big-time programs transfer due to discipline issues and I have not seen where the NCAA no longer counts this against programs. Also, for top 25 programs pro sports do take a significant toll on graduation rates.
last edited: 12/20/05 4:07:03 PM”

“Some people just don't get it. COLLEGE football, not FOOTBALL college. I think an NFL squad is like 55 players. What are there, 32 Teams? That makes a total of 1,760 players in the NFL. Seems like a small number (even less for rookies) to be drawing down the graduation rates for all of college football. As an educator, it seems like we have a duty to not allow our students to fail. Yes, they need to be responsible as adults, but let's remember they are only 18-21 year old.”

“Joe Pa named coach of the year by AP. Nuff said!”

“I understand we all make mistakes and become wiser with age but to imply that an 18-20 yr old is not mature enough to be responsible for their own education is outrageous. What does that speak about our society? "What do you think this is a Holiday Inn?" I certainly don't believe that football should be before their education. However, the question still remains how does the graduation rate paint any type of picture of how well universities are educating the student athlete? A variety conflicting conclusions are drawn.
last edited: 12/21/05 9:49:53 AM”