Egypt - revolution in the Middle East

“Romney's a tool, saleboring

Mutt, ah nevermind....I don't have time for this

Israel's screwed, that's for sure”

“Hey, Dallas is back, speaking of oil sinking in water.”

“I don't have time for this

Apparently not, judging from your posts.”

“Africans are so silly.”

“Do Egyptians who come to America call themselves African-Americans?”

“'Romney's a tool, saleboring'

And, just whom gets elected that is not a
tool?

'Israel's screwed, that's for sure'

It was born of a good screwing, so what's new?”

“Israel is a reservation, so they should qualify from casinos. WEST BANKED what a concept.”

“mutt,

Sad. Even these leading progressives don’t read the Washington Post! From 2006:

Come the caliphate
Saturday, January 21, 2006

The idea of restoring the body that governed and united the world’s Muslims for more than 1,000 years is beginning to resonate again. Karl Vick explains. The plan was to fly a hijacked plane into a national landmark on live television. The year was 1998, the country was Turkey, and the rented plane ended up grounded by weather. Court records show the Islamic extremist who planned to commandeer the cockpit did not actually know how to fly.

But if the audacious scheme prefigured September 11, 2001, it also highlighted a cause that, seven years later, President George W Bush has used to define the war against terrorism. What the ill-prepared Turkish plotters told investigators they aimed to do was strike a dramatic blow toward reviving Islam’s caliphate, the institution that had nominally governed the world’s Muslims for nearly all of the almost 1,400 years since the death of the prophet Mohammed.

…….

Al-Qaeda named its Internet newscast, which debuted in September, The Voice of the Caliphate.

Yet the caliphate is also esteemed by many ordinary Muslims. For most, its revival is not an urgent concern. Public opinion polls show immediate issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and discrimination rank as more pressing.

…….

But while Turks won self-rule, most of the former caliphate was divided among European colonial powers. One Arab scholar called it “the division of Muslim lands into measly pieces which call themselves nations.”

This is what inspired the group most directly focused on the push for a new caliphate, Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT), or Party of Liberation. The group, which claims to be active in 40 countries, began in 1953 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. But while the Brotherhood, which also favors a caliphate, embraced realpolitik, growing into a potent opposition force in Syria and Egypt, Hizb ut-Tahrir charted a more subversive path.”

“What kind of law is this?

http://newsone.com/nation/newsonestaff2/chad-holley-brutally-beaten-by-houston-police-on-tape/”

“at that moment, I didn't”

“I ain't no Union man....”

“Double negative union guy, eh? The Egyptians can throw rocks until the next foreign aid payment is due, too.”

“Time to go home protesters, got to open up the hotels and tourist traps again, all the street girls are unemployed and the next foreign aid check may stay in China and not find it's way through the US to our military hierarchy.”

“We need to feed the military coup in Egypt. I'm calling for doubling foreign aid for all countries (excepting of course, the USA)

IMC, IMC, IMC...”

“Mubarak has chosen Willie Jeff Clinton to take over, because HE has a birth certificate and a birth mark.”

“Everybody ready for the supposed big announcement??”

“What, that it's all Obama's fault?”

“IMC, IMC, IMC!!”

“Dramatic day - I heard Mubarak's speech being translated on the radio as he made it. Weirdly anti-climactic. He said almost nothing new.

Here is the free Stratfor analysis:

Red Alert: The Egyptian Military's Options

February 10, 2011

The decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to resign seems to have shocked both the Egyptian military and Washington. CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke earlier as if his resignation was assured and a resolution to the crisis was guaranteed. Sources in Cairo spoke the same way. How the deal came apart, or whether Mubarak decided that transferring power to Vice President Omar Suleiman was sufficient cannot be known. What is known is that Mubarak did not do what was expected.

This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military. Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. We are now less than six hours from dawn in Cairo. The military faces three choices. The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter the grounds. The second choice is to move troops and armor into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. The third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak.

The first strategy opens the door to regime change as the crowd, not the military, determines the course of events. The second creates the possibility of the military firing on the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police, which have happened) would undermine the military’s desire to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as not hostile to the public.

That leaves the third option, which is a coup. Mubarak will be leaving office under any circumstances by September. The military does not want an extraconstitutional action, but Mubarak’s decision leaves the military in the position of taking one of the first two courses, which is unacceptable. That means military action to unseat Mubarak as the remaining choice.

One thing that must be borne in mind is that whatever action is taken must be taken in the next six or seven hours. As dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand back and let events go where they go, or fire on the demonstrators. Indeed, in order to do the latter, troops and armor must move into position now, to possibly overawe the demonstrators.

Thus far, the military has avoided confrontation with the demonstrators as much as possible, and the demonstrators have expressed affection toward the army. To continue that policy, and to deal with Mubarak, the options are removing him from office in the next few hours or possibly losing control of the situation. But if this is the choice taken, it must be taken tonight so that it can be announced before demonstrations get under way Feb. 11 after Friday prayers.

It is of course possible that the crowds, reflecting on Mubarak’s willingness to cede power to Suleiman, may end the crisis, but it does not appear that way at the moment, and therefore the Egyptian military has some choices to make.”

“Stratfor has been wrong on its analysis more than a few times in the past.

This is a dangerous game being played out. Does this small sample of Egyptians speak on behalf of the majority of Egyptians?

I'm optimistic that events will flesh out in a similar fashion as when the Baltic nations broke away.”

“Yes they have been wrong. George Friedman (founder/CEO of Stratfor) does not promote his 1991 book with its bold prognostications. Used hardcover copies can be had on Amazon for shipping + a penny.

http://www.amazon.com/Coming-War-Japan-George-Friedman/dp/0312058365/ref=sr_1_1_title_1_h?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1297393339&sr=1-1
last edited: 2/10/11 7:08:05 PM”

“I don't put much stock into the conclusions of Stratfor's grand forecasts, but their analyses are almost always very methodical and comprehensive, and they pay particular attention to the lessons of history.

Day-to-day analysis of geopolitical events is where they shine, though. For instance, they excelled in analyzing the geopolitics of the aughts, in particular the war on terrorism. While the MSM was consumed with discussing propaganda, Stratfor was leading the way with their analyses of the actual machinations behind the wars, that the MSM only reluctantly acknowledged years after the fact.

Lately, their coverage of the Egyptian crisis has been excellent. You have to be a subscriber, though. Well worth the money.”

“If anything happens to disrupt the Suez Canal, WE ARE SCREWED”

“Not so much as Europe; where they count on that canal being open to cheap goods from India and China.”

“We're screwed, no matter what happens, because we are involved in everything. Get the amerikan tax payer out of everyones lives.

The MSM's problems can only be blamed on the big biz that's pays their wages. I guess our own gov's problems could be the same groups fault, but the real problem with both is the IMC that lead the takeover of this country from the people, yawl know the 'We the people' that the tea party always brings up.”

“Everything I see from Stratfor is thoughtful and interesting. I thank Mutt for exposing me to more of their thinking over the years. Being a cheapskate - I just get their free emails and sales pitches.

Knowing people who are connected to parts of the intelligence community - I get the sense Stratfor is well plugged into one or more strains of thinking of American intelligence so it is useful in that way, too.”

“we are involved in everything. Get the amerikan tax payer out of everyones lives.

Look Sale, either we can disengage with the world and go back to being a a backwater 3rd world agrarian nation (America circa 1900) with a pathetically low standard of living, or we can be a modern, developed nation that is dependent on interconnections with the rest of the world, interconnections that have to be protected. You are completely removed from reality if you think we can be a modern country without actively protecting our global interests.”

“Being a cheapskate - I just get their free emails

It's amazing the content Stratfor gives away for free.”

“There is a middle ground between being a backwater nation and a quasi-imperial hyper-power with around 1000 foreign bases. There are plenty of modern nations that have a far less interventionist foreign policy.

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/BSR_2007_Baseline.pdf”

“Egypt is free!!! They won and one!! Now are the Amerikan taxpayers free of the Free Egyptians?”

“There is a middle ground between being a backwater nation and a quasi-imperial hyper-power with around 1000 foreign bases.

America is NOT imperialist, in the academic sense of the word. Since 9/11 it is fashionable in common vernacular to describe America as imperialist, but that phenomenon does not change the definition of the word.

There are plenty of modern nations that have a far less interventionist foreign policy.

Of course! They do not shoulder the burden of protecting their geopolitical interests because theirs align roughly with ours that we are already protecting. They get to sit back and enjoy the benefits of safe shipping lanes while publicly tsk-tsking the US for being so "imperialist". Like it or not, there is no replacement right now for America. If we leave, there is a vacuum, and history conclusively teaches that that has dire consequences.”

“As with man's limited affect on climate, this countries affect on the rest of the world is too heavy handed. This country can do nothing in moderation, everything has to be carried to extremes, we are 4.5% of world population, ACT like it then.”

“Definition of QUASI: having some resemblance usually by possession of certain attributes.

There is a false choice between leaving and staying as we are. After 9/11 some tried to pose the false choice of "do nothing" or invade Iraq and build a new regime.”

“Why didn't Bush use, in Iraq, the tactics Obama has just used in Egypt? The IMC hates it, but WWII is so last century.”

“Michelle Bachman was rite again, we should have invaded so these people wouldn't be dancing in the streets. Bachman/Beck 2012!!!”

“Exciting to see Mubarak has resigned. The military seems to be in charge for now. The ball is now in the court of the protestors.”

“mubarak is the new brett favre...the will he won't he retire thing, not the wiener pic thing”

“Mr.Mubarak, bring down that bank account.”

“It will be interesting to see what Egypt does next. To paraphrase what Mutt said earlier in this thread in a different context - history tells us that power vacuums are often poorly filled.”

“I don't think it will be interesting at all. Who gives a crap what they do next? They do what they do, big whoop.”

“thank you for sharing your opinion of indifference. perhaps if more people around here had the passion and dedication of the Egyptians, they could enact some actual change around here”

“perhaps if more people around here had the passion and dedication of the Egyptians

I doubt it's that simple. I think there is a lot less passion and dedication than appears.”

“Willies' Willie is more important than the possible fall of amerikan world Military Control. UUUHHH! what a mystery!!”

“This pretty much sums it up:

”

“It has been fascinating to see how events unfolded in Egypt. I'll be very interested to follow events in Egypt over the rest of the year.”

“Iraq War 3 Trillion
Bush Domino Policy
Tunisia, Egypt......
Iraq War, Tunisia, Egypt..... 1 Trillion EACH

Just like that first rainstorm with that new $240 dollar rain jacket by the third storm its only $80 a storm then $60 then $48, then $40 etc.....

Money well spent”

“All three were our picked and installed Dictators, did we rebel against our self?”

“Stratfor is now arguing that this was a military coup, not a revolution.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110213-egypt-distance-between-enthusiasm-and-reality?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110214&utm_content=readmore&elq=80938d73c97c4277adfa618d91eea869”