Sipsey Spring '09 - Big Tree, Big Water

“It's certainly not looking good.”

“I'm 'officially' pulling out for this weekend, sorry.”

“No apologies necessary...doesn't make sense to do it at this point. We'll reschedule for a later time.”

“gojo (and everyone else) - THE TRIP IS CANCELLED SO DO NOT COME TO BANKHEAD THIS WEEKEND. WE WON'T BE THERE :)”

“Well, guess it's for the best. Wouldn't be too much fun camping and hiking in the rain..

...creeks should still be running good next weekend...”

“http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/hwo/hwo.gif

scroll down...

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FLUS44 KBMX 251004
HWOBMX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-261130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
500 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON OPEN WATERWAYS TODAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. IF VENTURING OUT
ON THE WATER TODAY...USE EXTRA CAUTION.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS NORTHERN
ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING GENERALLY
AFTER 9 PM...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
FOR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER 9 PM. THE REMAINING
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AFTER 9 PM. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD
FOR EASTERN AREAS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 11
PM WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCREASES TONIGHT. AREAS NEAR
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 59 MAY RECEIVE A TOTAL 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME PROBLEMS.

HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING PLANS READY AND TAKE ACTION
IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST
THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE FIRST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE A CARRYOVER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT WINDOW THROUGH 10 OR 11 AM. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.

THE SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WINDOW OF APPEARS TO BE FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
ARE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE THIRD...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT...WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 4 PM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DUE TO THE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY. FINALLY...
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDS UP FALLING...RIVER FLOODING
MAY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM...AND SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL CREATE THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. EACH DAY'S DETAILS WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON WHAT HAPPENS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY...ALONG WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF EACH OF THE SMALLER IMPULSES. ADDITIONALLY...THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONTS OR ANY SMALLER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
WILL AIDE IN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT DAYS STORMS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS...DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED WITH THESE FACTORS.

MAKE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS ARE IN PLACE AND BE READY
TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED SEVERAL TIMES...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

75/LINHARES
last edited: 3/25/09 10:29:42 AM”

“Hey Pully...if it looks like it's going to blow on out early Saturday morning, I may still come up for the day if you'll be around.”

“I'll be around. I'd like to camp somewhere Saturday night but won't if I don't have anyone to go with.”

“Dam. Euro should be here - she could prolly get some NOLS certification for foul weather survival or rescue or something.”

“Ok, Saturday morning through Sunday is looking absolutely gorgeous. Anybody interested in making this a one nighter or taking Monday instead of Friday off and spending 2 nights anyway?”

“I'm interested in a one nighter.”

“Pully - ygm”

“Unlikely that I'll be able to easily reschedule this trip in the foreseeable future so with the weather forecast clearing sometime Saturday morning, I'm heading on up then for at least that night and perhaps Sunday if there are others who might be able to take Monday off as well and are interested. Let me hear from you if so.

Stovie? ST?”

“Hopefully we can do this trip a little later in the season or closer to fall. Look forward to hiking with you all soon :) I am possibly going to Kentucky this week to do some day hiking :) YAY me hehe”

“They are forecasting severe thunderstorms now for this area in the afternoon as well on Saturday. Was on the news this morning so thought I would give you the heads up.”

“I'm watching it with a microscope believe me :) Looks like precentages significantly drop off after 8 AM ish with some sunshine later in the day before a rather clear evening. Come on and join us.”

“Toph...still going to Brushy?”

“ST - Absolutely...Pully and myself hope to have camp set up early tomorrow morning and then hit the waterfalls.
last edited: 3/27/09 7:05:28 AM”

“Admit it....ya'll bailed cause I wasn't going to be there.....



...so...what happened??...trip reports???...pics????”

“Sent Toph an email just a while ago...hope he's ok...”

“maybe he is drying out...
...did ya'll get lots of rain???”

“Ended up being myself and Pully and yep, we're back safe and sound...thanks for asking.

The waterfalls were definitely booming and the weather was absolutely perfect except for a bit of humidity Saturday afternoon. We started Saturday by taking 202 down to the Sipsey River, downstream to Little Ugly Creek and upstream from there to Deer Skull Falls. From Deer Skull we went overland back to the 201/202 trailhead. I don't recommend doing that last part unless you take a much different route than we did :( Sunday morning we hiked upstream from Brushy Lake in search of the "Brushy Shangri La Falls" based on information from Uncle Wayne. We're not positive we found it because there were several in that area that would fit the bill so I need to send him the pics in hopes that he can identify it :) A few marker trees and old stills up through there as well. Don't have pics posted yet but hope to soon and I will post a link here when they are up.”