Perseids 8/11-12

“2004 IMO Calendar

Active : July 17-August 24;
Maxima : August 12, 11h - 13h 20m
ZHR = 100;
Radiant : alpha = 046°, delta = +58°;
V = 59 km/s;




Figure 9: Radiant position and drift of the Perseids


Perseids 2004



All times are Universal Time (UT) --- (aka Universal Coordinated Time (UTC), Greenwich Mean Time, (GMT), ZULU, et cetera).

UT - 4 hrs = EDT
UT - 5 = EST, CDT
UT - 6 = CST, MDT
UT - 7 = MST, PDT
UT - 8 = PST.... yadda-yadda!


This year the main peak is predicted for 11h - 13h 20m August 12, so ---

7 - 9 AM EDT
6 - 8 AM EST, CDT
5 - 7 AM CST, MDT
4 - 6 AM MST, PDT
3 - 5 AM PST

You guys Out West should be getting the better view this time around… in the hours before sunrise on Thursday morning.


(and may the Schwartz be with you)”

“I'll be looking forward to watching from Robson Pass, near Jasper. Should be a great show from there”

“For sure!

(I'm partial to the ones that peak at 1 or 2 AM... not 5 or 6!)”

“"yadda yadda!"????!?!!!

Oh those silly astronomers!! Who knew they watched Seinfeld??”

“Alaska, Hawaii, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Yadda-yadda.

They're all going to get a better view, so screw them!






<GRIN>”

“SONOFAB&^%*! I'll finally be somewhere perfect for viewing them (on an island in Lake Michigan w/ no lights) and they won't be peaking until 6am?! Basturds. Oh well, we'll catch some the following night I'm sure. Unless mit's cloudy, which is highly possible in MI.”

“I love meteor showers.. I will mark it on my calendar, and see if I can't remember to check it out!”

“Too bad. It will definitely be light here from 7-9 AM on 8/12.”

“No view for me here on the East Coast. Oh well, next year.”

“What time will they be visible from Hawaii? Maybe this would be a good time for a trip. The view could be terrific from 13,680 feet on Mauna Loa or from the
Mauna Kea Observatories.
”

“Wait, just because they peak at a certain time doesn't mean you can't see them before or after, right??”

“True, smiley girl. I'll get up early and hit my meadow to see what I can see.”

“I know in times past.. just cos you weren't viewing at 'peak time' -- there was still a fairly substantial show..

I will try it about 330 am.”

“For sure... Not a complete washout or anything!

I've seen graphs of the distributions of various showers and the Perseids have a fairly "rounded" peak. It's not nearly as sharp as, say, the Quadrantids in January.

It does kinda suck to have the peak on a week night, tho'! Most all showers are better after midnight... (lots more bugs on the windshield than the back window, donchaknow!)”

“No, no. They turn them off after prime time. After then, you have to wait for the re-runs, often in the wee hours of the morning.”

“The shower begins, gently, in mid-July when Earth enters the outskirts of a cloud of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle. Dust-sized meteoroids hitting the atmosphere will streak across the night sky, at first only a sprinkling, just a few each night, but the rate will build.







That's what I'm counting on for the weekend before the peak. It should be a pretty good show.”

“That 1862 stream...”

“AN EXCELLENT YEAR FOR THE PERSEIDS

The Perseid meteor shower, due to peak on the morning of August 12th,
should put on a nice show -- and may display a surprising new component.

http://SkyandTelescope.com/observing/objects/meteors/article_1289_1.asp

------------------------------------------------------------------------

AN 11TH-MAGNITUDE SUPERNOVA

An unusually bright supernova has gone off in NGC 2403, an 8.5-magnitude
galaxy in the constellation Camelopardalis, the Giraffe.

http://SkyandTelescope.com/observing/objects/variablestars/

------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE OUTER PLANETS IN 2004

Our finder charts will help you locate Uranus (in Aquarius), Neptune (in
Capricornus), and Pluto (in Ophiuchus). Both Uranus and Neptune come
closest to Earth this month.

http://SkyandTelescope.com/observing/objects/planets/article_1221_1.asp

------------------------------------------------------------------------

SKY AT A GLANCE

Jupiter is the bright point low in the west during dusk; it sets by the
end of twilight. To read more about what's happening in the night sky this
week, visit "This Week's Sky at a Glance":

http://SkyandTelescope.com/observing/ataglance/

------------------------------------------------------------------------

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discoveries from the world's astronomical observatories, go to this
address:

http://SkyandTelescope.com/shopatsky/emailsubscribe.asp”

“I'm sorry, but some of you folks couldn't find Uranus with both hands!”

“I didn't realize that you were visiting chili36.”

“Ha!



This Just In... VERY COOL from [IMO-News]:

Hello you all,

Just a short message that the NASA flux estimator has been updated to
provide local estimation of HR, just by selecting the place you will be to observe the shower. Let's see:

http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/estimator.html



And most of all clear skies ;-)

Jeremie

http://www.imcce.fr/Equipes/GAP/JV/equipeGAP-JV-GB.html

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Set to a nearby city, or substitute desired Lat/Long and it will estimate your peak observation time.”

“Cool. I like the Dark Sky estimator (link on that site), too.”

“We're so looking forward to this. Plan on being on N.C.'s Outer Banks sitting in my beach-chair, drowning some squid and keeping the Corona from getting warm. Let the surf fishing begin!”

“I need about a 3-hour course to understand how to use whatever that thing is. It did tell me, "Wow, you're going to be near to some very dark skies. But I have no idea of where it thought I would be located.

I have a different approach! I'm just going to look up. What I see is what I'll see. From where? Ice Water Spring Shelter on the AT is where I'm headed. In case I'm unable to obtain a reservation, Clingman's Dome is my second choice. Third choice is the Fontana Hilton Shelter near the Fontana Dam.”

“Nowslimmer, seems like I remember reading that peak time for the east is approximately 2:00 am on the 12th, with the majority being in the northeastern sky. That's peak, but there's many to be seen on either side of that hour!!!!”

“Thanks, Geezr. I can handle that 2 AM. stuff. By going staight to bed, my body functions will wake me about 2 AM.

My new plan is to head for the Balsam Mountain CG for 2-3 nights. From the 5,310 feet altitude there in the mountains, there should be some great viewing.

Two AM. and NE. Got it!”

“Yep! Anytime after midnight ought to be pretty good.... and getting better as you get closeer to sunrise.”

“(how many 'e's in 'closeer'? LOL)”

“It depends upon the repeat rate set in keyboard properties. Also, you canincrease the delay time there in order to allow a little more time for any lazy fingers to get off the keys. Then, too, it may be mainly a function of your alcolol content.”

“Hic!”

“href="http://www.floridatoday.com/news/space/stories/2004b/spacestoryN0809PERSEIDS.htm"target="_blank">Perseids may provide a celestial spectacular.

The Perseid peak may be the most awesome in several years. Reasons:

1. High density of comet debris. In the US one might see about one every minute.
2. A dark night with a late, waning moon.
3. Fast entry up to 130,000 mph producing white, blue, red, green, orange and yellow flashes with smoke trails that may last over a minute.

Look NE around midnight or 2 AM. Thursday morning for the peak dislplay.

Pleasant viewing.”

“NE.. .. Note to self: -- need to change viewing area. Trees in way.”

“Also, the crescent Moon (13%) should be rising next to Venus at about 3:30 AM (3:19 for me).

Any clear overhead (without lights) is good --- no need to chop down any trees, LOL”

“There's a place behind the barn I usually use.. but the angle of incidence might be a little small.”

“I think I'll get up around 1:30 AM on Thursday morning, go down to the lake and take the canoe out for a spin.

Tilt, the dark sky estimator and the flux estimator are really cool.”

“CALL FOR OBSERVATIONS -- PERSEIDS 2004
======================================

In an earlier publication, Jim Jones & Peter Brown
presented a graph showing enhanced particle densities
for the Peseids in 2004 and 2010. The possible peak
will be due to material ejected from Comet Swift-
Tuttle in 1862. A peak time was not given in that
paper yet. (Jones & Brown, ASP Conf. Series 104 (1996),
p. 105)

Precise computations by Esko Lyytinen integrating
dust trails revealed the probable time of trail en-
counter with the Earth. The ejecta of 1862 will be
met at 20:54 UT on August 11 (solar longitude 139.441
deg). The ZHR estimate is 100, but may be higher as
the Comet is bigger whence possibly more productive than
Tempel-Tuttle. (Lyytinen, Meta Research, web page at
www.metaresearch.org/solar%20system/perseid/perseids.asp)

A full-stream model by Jeremie Vaubaillon does
confirm that 1862 particle come closest to Earth near
21h UT on August 11. His findings do not support a
visually prolific Perseid show though. It is only
the smaller particles forming a dense sheet which
may rather be noticed by radio techniques (web page
at http://www.imcce.fr/s2p/PER/2004Perseids.html).


It will be a unique challenge to verify predictions
for other meteoroid streams than the Leonids and
June Bootids. All meteor observers are thus invited
to carry out careful data-collection and submit their
data.

The simplest visual observation contains counts
of Perseids and non-Perseids in ~10-minute periods.
Please add a measure for the stellar limiting magnitude
to your report. Details of more elaborate observations
are found at

http://www.imo.net/visual/major01.html


Visual reports can be sent to the International
Meteor Organization at

Rainer Arlt
rarlt@aip.de

video recordings can be communicated to

Sirko Molau
sirko@molau.de


Thanks in advance for your collaboration -- clear skies,

Rainer”

“Didn't notice these at first --

http://www.metaresearch.org/solar%20system/perseid/perseids.asp

http://www.imcce.fr/s2p/PER/2004Perseids.html”

“I just stood up fast and saw a bunch of flashes. Should I notify them?”

“Fireball Report Form?”

“Space Weather News for August 10, 2004

http://spaceweather.com

PERSEID METEORS: The Perseid meteor shower peaks this week. Look for rare but lovely Perseid Earthgrazers when the sun goes down on Wednesday, August 11th. Then, before dawn on Thursday, August 12th, go outside for the main event: as many as 60 meteors per hour. Getting away from city lights is a good idea: dark skies reveal more meteors.

VENUS AND THE MOON: Early Thursday morning just before dawn when the Perseid meteor shower is supposed to be most intense, Venus and the
crescent moon will appear side-by-side in the eastern sky. This lovely pair would be worth waking up for even if there were no meteor shower.

Check SpaceWeather.com for a sky map.”

“Well the clouds have moved in and it looks like I'm Royally Screwed (along with everyone else in the Southeast).

The forecast for tomorrow night calls for a 60% chance of rain... and doesn't look like it'll be letting up for a few days.

<GRR>



MURPHY RULES!”

“Same here Tilt. We're already experiencing pre-Bonnie clouds, and they're expected to continue all the way through the weekend.”

“Yep, we all know how Murphy's Law works double-time with weather and hiking. It works the same way with sailboats and meteor showers!

If I could find clear sky within 100 miles, I'd be packing right now --- but any further for a Wednesday night? .... _<GRRRRRR>”

“Tomorrow morning, right?”

“Peak is early tomorrow morning (8/12), pretty much 2 am until dawn. But you should get a good show tonight after dark, too.”

“Got totally screwed this go-'round! LOL

The weather moved in, then the anti-God device bit the big one, so I didn't even get to check them out at one of the live sites on the net ---

http://homepage2.nifty.com/~baron/hrolive.htm


ANYway....

Some results are coming in:

==============================
I M O S H O W E R C I R C U L A R
==============================

The 2004 Perseids, 2nd analysis

As an update of the first preliminary analysis of
the 2004 Perseids based on visual observations,
this is a refined graph with almost 500 observing
periods.

The peak time of the 1-revolution dust trail pre-
dicted by Lyytinen can be narrowed down to the
period 20:45 UT to 21:10 UT. This encloses the
predicted time of 20:54 UT on August 11. A plateau-
like maximum of 20-25 minutes duration has not
changed anymore after adding the last 100 observing
periods. The activity level was ZHR=170.

The traditional maximum is not yet well covered.
The dip of ZHR=75 may not be significant since
systematical errors may exceed the given statistical
error greatly (very small number of observers).

Until now, the following observers contribute to
the curve (forgive me if you are missing; I am
working on):

Rainer Arlt (Germany)
Roberto Bacci (Italy)
Lukas Bolz (Germany)
Michael Boschat (Canada)
Dustin Brown (USA)
Sietse Dijkstra (the Netherlands)
Audrius Dubietis (Lithuania)
Daniel Grun (Germany)
Amir Hasanzadeh (Iran)
Takema Hashimoto (Japan)
Jan Hattenbach (Germany)
Andre Knofel (Germany)
Dovile Kraulaidiene (Lithuania)
Ralf Kuschnik (Germany)
Marco Langbroek (the Netherlands)
Peter van Leuteren (the Netherlands)
Mike Linnolt (USA)
Robert Lunsford (USA)
Vladimir Lukic (USA)
Hartwig Luthen (Germany)
Christophe Marlot (France)
Felix A. Martinez (USA)
Mikhail Maslov (Russia)
Bruce McCurdy (Canada)
Huan Meng (China)
Sirko Molau (Germany)
Thom Morgan (USA)
Norman W. McLeod (USA)
Sven Nather (Germany)
Daniel van Os (the Netherlands)
Jurgen Rendtel (Germany)
Petra Rendtel (Germany)
Eini Shlomi (Israel)
Shigeo Uchiyama (Japan)
Oliver Wusk (Germany)
Jurga Zieniute (Lithuania)

-------------------------------------------------------

Date (UT)   Time  Solarlong   nINT   nPER    ZHR

-------------------------------------------------------

Aug 11.353  08:28   138.946      6    137     37  +-  3

Aug 11.723  17:21   139.301     10    120     86  +-  8

Aug 11.780  18:43   139.356     11     69     71  +-  8

Aug 11.834  20:01   139.408     12     69    122  +- 15

Aug 11.850  20:24   139.423     19    136    154  +- 13

Aug 11.860  20:38   139.433     18    139    128  +- 11

Aug 11.865  20:46   139.438     22    141    176  +- 15

Aug 11.872  20:56   139.445     20    146    165  +- 14

Aug 11.879  21:06   139.451     27    197    173  +- 12

Aug 11.886  21:16   139.458     22    112    118  +- 11

Aug 11.893  21:26   139.465     24    114    105  +- 10

Aug 11.900  21:36   139.471     18    129    105  +-  9

Aug 11.909  21:49   139.480     33    101     63  +-  6

Aug 11.928  22:16   139.498     28    218     81  +-  5

Aug 11.949  22:47   139.518     24    224     83  +-  6

Aug 11.969  23:15   139.538     29    348     95  +-  5

Aug 11.991  23:47   139.559     26    334    109  +-  6

Aug 12.012  00:17   139.579     19    219    103  +-  7

Aug 12.033  00:48   139.599     24    336    121  +-  7

Aug 12.053  01:16   139.618     20    304    132  +-  8

Aug 12.079  01:54   139.643     22    339    128  +-  7

Aug 12.210  05:02   139.769      8    123     75  +-  7

Aug 12.347  08:20   139.901     12    683    110  +-  4

Aug 12.495  11:53   140.043     11     88    103  +- 11

-------------------------------------------------------

r = 2.0 was assumed, solar longitudes refer to J2000.0.


Rainer Arlt, 2004 August 13, 13h UT
-----------------------------------”

“OK Tilt, looking for a good report.”