“The national polls are largely meaningless. The only thing that matters are the individual statewide polls in the battleground states.

I find it interesting to watch how individual, localized polling drives campaign stops.

For instance, recent polling in West Michigan has shown weakness is Bush's Republican base. Polls in West Michigan show that Kerry has much more support on issues of jobs/economy. Bush has more support on issues of terrorism.

If Bush were to lose even 5 or 10 percent of Republican support in West Michigan, he'll lose the state.

So, Bush stopped in Grand Rapids last week. This week, Kerry stopped.

BTW, Kerry got 25,000 people to turn out in Grand Rapids, MI. The Republican city officials said it was the largest political event in recent memory.

If George Bush is fighting for votes in Grand Rapids, he's in trouble in Michigan.”

“Well... the latest Zogby poll has Kerry leading by 7.5% in Michigan.

It also shows Kerry with a 318 to 220 lead in the electoral college.
:D”

“http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry 307 Bush 231”

“Me and Jeb will take care of that!”

“Why would you need Jeb's help when you still have all of those democrat county election commissioners who "stole" the election for you last time?”

“Sorry Buddha but you can’t go changing the facts you present just because you get busted lying on them. I used your own source to prove you wrong. What? If the source doesn’t say what you want you go find some that do? What a spinner. And besides, once again and again, 2.5% isn’t even outside the margin for error.

Face it Buddha, you got bested by the very one you run around calling ignorant and stupid. Own it…"
Nigal
12:19:56 PM
08/03/04

Nigal, you are so f-ing stupid, it's kind of infuriating. I'm not angry with you though. I'm angry that our schools weren't funded adequately to give you an education that would teach you how to use logic and reason when encountering life.

My initial arguement to the spin that you and several others jumped on was that you cited only one poll, and there are several others out there that show the opposite, that Kerry did, in fact, get a bounce. I didn't argue "margin of error", or whatever you keep trying to sidetrack the arguement with. I argued that the majority of polls out there substantially dispute the gallup polls results.

I even went as far to list the polls, with the numbers, and the bounce, and took the time to average, in combination with the gallup poll, all the polls, so I could spoon feed the facts to you.

In conclusion, your ridiculous points will no longer be argued by me. My time is much more valuable to argue with misguided schills who refer to themselves as "poopypants".”

“No Buddha Bush, you gave a link to the Gallop pole so that's the one I used. It proved my point and it proved your own point wrong. And the margin of error is a very important thing to those of us who live in reality because there's a margin of error of + or - 3%. If you can't even get outside those margins it is meaningless. You can't even admit when you make a mistake. I can only conclude you are purposely lying about it.

You got punked and you're pissed. Plain and simple.”

“link

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (Reuters) - Democrat John Kerry leads President Bush 47 percent to 41 percent among registered voters in Florida, according to a poll released on Thursday that showed independent Ralph Nader with 4 percent.
In a two-way race, Kerry leads Bush 49 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll of 1,092 registered Florida voters conducted last week by the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The poll's error margin was three percentage points...”

“Amazing what happens when you don't have brother Jeb removing legitimate voters from the list...”

“Start getting used to saying it folks:

President Kerry

”

“Interesting pro-Bush web site - it carries results from a neutral polling site showing Kerry significantly ahead, but makes the case that Bush will catch up and win:

http://www.electionprojection.com/essay1.html”

“Interesting.

Dead wrong, but interesting!”

“I'm John Kerry and I aprove of this message.



Heehee! Couldn't help myself.”

“Special interests serving the Democratic party developed an intimidating get-out-the-vote machine during the 90's. That process culminated in an heroic effort in 2000. The result? Dubya took the best punch well-heeled civil rights activists and unions had to offer and still came out on top. Those Democratic special interests will be hard-pressed to match that performance and even less likely to exceed it.

They won't HAVE to. Bush has done it for the DNC.

”

“Here's a nice little bit of screaming hysterical rhetoric, as well.

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean has been a veritable political highlight reel. Never before in my memory has a candidate followed a path similar to the one of this eccentric politician. In the race for the Democratic nomination, it has been thoroughly entertaining to see this man so flamboyantly hurtle himself to the front of the pack only to relegate himself to also-ran status through clumsy mis-steps and childish outbursts, all in a period of a few months. But, even though he's finished as a viable choice, his candidacy will have far-reaching effects on the election in November. What Dean did was to identify and add fuel to a smoldering fire within a segment of the Democratic party. These liberal Bush-haters haven't broken their engagement with him. They understand that he "feels their anger" - the same anger that will now compel them vote for a third party candidate rather than betray their man by voting for the victorious Democratic foe. This group won't be huge, but it will be enough to give Bush another advantage”

“What wishful right wing website did that fanciful thing turn up on Phaed?”

“It's Ped's link. The thing that kills me is that they're posting this along with the polls showing a massive Kerry victory.”

“It's like when the home team is down 15-1 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, and the play by play announcer says something like, "Jones is the final hope for the Mugwumps!" He's not any hope at all. He's just gonna make the final out!”

“Are we there yet??”

“I didn't link it because I agreed, but because it was worth thinking about. One thing that coincided with my own thinking was:

"The Democrats made a major blunder in the 2004 presidential race by choosing to hold their national convention on July 26 in Boston. The GOP will be holding its convention in the first week of September... concise reasons:
1. Bush will be able to continue spending his Primary money until September and use his general election money from September to November. The Democratic candidate, however, will be out of money by July, because of a tough Primary, and then have to make his general election funds last from July to November. This exaggerates Bush's already crushing money advantage.
2. 9/11 will be a few days after the GOP convention.
3. By holding the Democratic convention on July 26, the Democrats risk losing the post-convention bounce in the polls by election day. "

Kerry realized this, which was why he was talking about not accepting the nomination until well after the convention. Of course, the reaction to his trail balloons was negative so he didn't do it.”

“I just can't really believe that the encumbent's conference is going to make that much of a difference in this day of media saturation and partizanship. Kerry didn't get much of a bounce as it was, even with the expectation of being an unknown to most of the nation.

I could be completely wrong, but I don't expect a whole lot of change between now and November, barring some unforeseen event.”

“Funny that the author doesn't figure the beating Bush will get in the debates into his calculations.

Hope they don’t ask any hard questions like what Tribal sovereignty is.”

“Posted 8/26/2004 3:56 PM Updated 8/27/2004 12:17 AM

Poll: Bush has slim lead over Kerry
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush enters his convention week holding a slight lead over Democrat John Kerry and regaining ground he lost after Kerry's convention on the key issues of handling terrorism and Iraq, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.

Link to USA Today
In a head-to-head matchup, Bush led Kerry 50%-47% among likely voters, while Kerry led Bush 48%-47% among registered voters. With independent Ralph Nader included, Bush leads Kerry, 48%-46%, among likely voters. Nader gets 4%.

The poll of 1,004 adults, conducted Monday through Wednesday, had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The margin was +/- 4 points for the subgroups of registered and likely voters.

Bush's favorable rating of 54% was his highest since April. By contrast, Kerry's 52% was his lowest since January.

________________________________

Not that anyone cares about this because it is all about Electoral votes right !!”

“It's interesting CNN puts Bush ahead with "likely" voters, but slightly behind with "registered" voters. This could mean that Bush is doing a better job of energizing his base, or it could mean that Kerry is appealing to people who don't usually vote and he needs to work harder to get out the vote.

Either way, good news for Bush. I do expect that he will also get a bump out of the convention and will likely lead with both the "registered" and the "likely."”

“Time Mag poll also puts Bush ahead.”

“details:


If the November 2 presidential election were held today, 46 percent of likely voters surveyed would vote for Bush, 44 percent would vote for Kerry, and 5 percent would vote for independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites).


The poll also reports that 35 percent of those surveyed said there is "some truth" to ads questioning Kerry's Vietnam war feats run by an independent group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

site: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040828/ts_alt_afp/us_vote_polls”

“The only poll that counts is this November.”

“Yep, and no one will be calling your house to take that poll.”

“Yeah, but it's interesting to see opinion swing as the campaign progresses.”

“Actually, the *key* to such polls is the term "likely voters" which by definition means those that voted in at least the last 2 presidential elections(2000 and 1996). Believe me when I say, A LOT of people that didnt vote in both the last 2 are going to vote this time. yup.”

“All the hippies are going to mob the polling stations in a wave of patchouli-scented dissent.”

“As expected, Bush got a nice bump out of the convention. Two polls put his lead over 10 percent. It was a masterfully managed convention.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=17&u=/nm/20040904/us_nm/campaign_newsweek_poll_dc

Interesting how the news media, the New York cops and the Republicans managed coverage (or rather non-coverage) of the massive and overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations.”

“So, we've proven that people in America like moderate Republicans who support gay rights, access to abortion, campaign finance reform and generous social spending.

Whoa! There's a stunner!

What's gonna happen when people remember that McCain ain't running?”

“I hope your right RL. This confirms my feeling that Bush has got to be the favorite, especially since I think he will pull a major surprise if he needs it.

Still, I think Kerry has a very good chance - especially if he gets his act together.”

“Gore lost because he didn't want it enough. It was his to lose and he lost it.

Kerry has not shown that he wants it bad enough yet. He's got to take some chances. I still think that this election is Kerry's to lose. But he ain't exactly been winning it.

Even if Kerry were to lose, at least he'd define the Democratic alternative. And I'd expect Bush to lose momentum rapidly if he is reelected. He could destroy the Republican majority.”

“Why hasn't Kerry been talking up his record on the environment, and GW's abismal record on the same. IMHO, Kerry needs to play up his voting record. He would do well to speak plainly about many specific issues.”

“"especially since I think he will pull a major surprise if he needs it....."


Yep and that suprise is called "We got Osmama!".

The foundation is already being lad on the Fox website:

U.S. Said to Be Closer to Bin Laden Capture
Saturday, September 04, 2004


ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The United States and its allies have moved closer to capturing Usama bin Laden (search) in the last two months, a top U.S. counterterrorism official said in a television interview broadcast Saturday.

"If he has a watch, he should be looking at it because the clock is ticking. He will be caught," Joseph Cofer Black (search), the U.S. State Department coordinator for counterterrorism, told private Geo television network.

Asked if concrete progress had been made during the last two months — when Pakistan has arrested dozens of terror suspects including some key Al Qaeda (search) operatives — Black said, "Yes, I would say this."

Black, who briefed a group of Pakistani journalists after talks with officials here Friday, said he could not predict exactly when bin Laden and other top Al Qaeda fugitives would be nabbed.

"What I tell people, I would be surprised but not necessarily shocked if we wake up tomorrow and he's been caught along with all his lieutenants. That can happen because of the programs and infrastructure in place," he told Geo.

Bin Laden and his top associate, Ayman al-Zawahri, are believed to be hiding some place along the rugged border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Officials have divulged no solid intelligence about bin Laden's precise whereabouts, and it's not clear if they have any.”

“"Even if Kerry were to lose, at least he'd define the Democratic alternative."

Actually, he's done an incredibly poor job at describing the alternative. I've posted here A LOT, I lean conservative, even though I never voted for GW & don't want to this time. I DESPERATELY want an option, but I just don't see it with Kerry. All I hear from the Dem's is what's wrong w current administration, I already KNOW that! What ARE YOU going to do??? PLEASE tell me, because I really do want an alternative. In terms of articulating his vision / plan / priorities, I have no idea what Kerry wants to do except b!tch about GW.

Well, guess what... me to... so why don't you tell me why I should vote for you??? And just because you're NOT GW isn't good enough.

I'm actually pi$$ed at the Dems... I was hoping they'd present a viable candidate for us to consider, but I don't see it in Kerry.”

““ I'm actually pi$$ed at the Dems... I was hoping they'd present a viable candidate for us to consider, but I don't see it in Kerry."

No kidding. The dems have swung SO far to the left I think it’s going to push the middle to the right. I think their plan was to offer someone as far from Bush as possible in an effort to go with the “He’s not Bush” tact. So they put up the #1 and #3 most liberal guys they have. Had someone like Joe Lieberman been a choice I would have voted for the dems in a heartbeat but people like Joe aren’t the democratic party anymore.”

“"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
-- Will Rogers


I'm not a Democrat, but I get the joke - and I definitely back their guy this time around. The Democrats have never had the discipline that the Republicans have and it's a problem for them. The Republicans are so much better at staying on message.”

“For what it's worth, the message is based on a lie.

Hussein had no connection to Al Qaeda and the Sept. 11th bombings. Yet they keep spreading this LIE at the convention.

Why not actually focus on the war on terror? Where's Osama?

And why not focus on the loss of 1 million jobs since Bush took office.

Or let's pay a little attention to the 500 billion dollars in debt we are piling up year after year under Bush.

Sept. 11 killed 0.00001 percent of the U.S. population. More people get killed by lightning. Where is Bush's initiative to stop lightning?

What really matters is the economy. The stock markets are listless. Auto sales just plummeted 10% to 15%. Unemployment is high. Job growth is anemic.

Do all of your relatives have health care? Do you know anyone looking for a job? Do you know a kid with a 30 or 40 student classroom? Are things better than they were in 2000?”

“Yet at the same time RL you totally ignore the fact that we have had 12 straight months of growth and recovery. You ignore the fact that most of the economic numbers across the board are at the same levels as they were when Clinton was running for re election. Had gore been elected and the same numbers existed for him the left would be using it as a good platform point for his re election.

But a realistic picture such as this doesn’t replace Bush so we will just carry on with the doom and gloom.”

“People without health care and people below poverty level have increased markedly. So far, this has been a horribly anemic recovery - even more so when you conisder we are in a time of war and massive deficits (both of which stimulate the economy).

Add to that, things like the elimination of the inheritance tax. Inheritance tax started early in this country's history. Part of the idea was preventing an inherited aristocracy of wealth. I'm all for excluding as much as five million dollars, with even greater amounts for real family farms and small businesses, but I fear that eliminating the inheritance tax is very destructive socially.”

“BTW: In Bob Graham's new book, he relates how shortly after the US took Afghanistan, General Franks told him that material wanted for the search for Al-Qeda leadership (like predator drones) was being diverted to prepare for the war in Iraq.

This supports my contention that the war in Iraq has been, not only a recruiting tool for Al-Qeda - but a distraction from the real war on terror.

So, I agree with you RL. The war in Iraq was sold (and is still sold) as being about 9/11 and the war on terror, when it actually undermines it.”

“Nigal!

Come on. We have very low percentage growth. The growth has not translated into jobs. And the situation is even worse in the Midwest. There is no job growth going on around here.

In Michigan, jobless rates are one-third higher than they were when Bush took office. We've lost 200,000 jobs. Ohio has lost them, too.

The jobless rate went down 0.1 percent this month because 150,000 people gave up on the job market and stopped looking. The numbers of Medicare recipients are up dramatically - meaning that the number of poor people is increasing.

Listen. Has Bush done some good things? Sure. The invasion of Afghanistan was necessary and good. You can run on that. But don't tell me that this has been a strong economy because it just isn't true.

Is Bush responsible for all this? No. But Bush has made the problem much worse by running up massive deficits, ruining our reputation among investors abroad and throwing out a massive tax cut that did not benefit the middle - spending - classes.”

“Although he has spent like a liberal on some social issues, the details are very pro-big business. For example the medicare drug benefit bill, prohibits the government from negotiating prices with the drug companies like the HMO's do. It's one thing to prohibit the government from dictating prices, another to say we won't negotiate (like to say when five medicines do the job equally well, we will give preference to the two that we get the best deal on - so we suggest you offer us some low prices). This bloats the cost of the policy without benefitting those in need. It seems more designed to keep people from buying in Canada, or pushing for reforms that will hurt the drug companies profits.”

“It looks like the polls and possibly pressure from Bill Clinton have caused Kerry to reorganize his campaign.

I heard on the news that 45% of the Democratic Convention was about Vietnam. That and Kerry's anger in his midnight rally are not going to win any votes.

Bush '04”

“I saw a wonderful thing that should really piss off the libs (esp. BB) around here. On the evening news a bunch of people protesting Kerry's appearance outside Pittsburgh today, a whole lot of them wearing union shirts.”

“Enjoy your little convention bounce and prepare to see your boy burried in the only poll that counts.

No whining.”

“Sounds like the whining has already begun, v.”